Friday round-up: Traffic forecasts, transport reports, road safety and more…
March 13, 2015 § Leave a comment
Road traffic Forecasts 2015 from the Department for Transport: different scenarios to 2040 modelled (with results including “exponential growth”), and different assumptions about trip rates considered, but, yes, “in most cases we forecast traffic in all area types to grow strongly”, albeit with slower growth (still growth) in some urban areas if current trends are to continue. As @giulio_mattioli put it: “Peak car? What peak car?” Indeed.
- Yet commuting habits have been changed – and road casualties and fatalities reduced – by the introduction of the London congestion charge in 2003, according to research from Lancaster University. Traffic accidents have fallen by 30 a month (a 40% reduction) with similar reductions in the numbers of those killed or seriously injured. The rate of accidents – number per million miles driven in the zone – has fallen by 2.6 from an average 12.4, showing a more than proportional decline in accidents in relation to the parallel reduction in vehicle numbers. And accidents and injuries have also fallen in areas adjacent to the charging zone (fewer people driving through them to central London), in the non-charged hours 6pm-7am and for exempt vehicles (including motorcycles, bicycles, taxis and buses).
- But the environmental/sustainability benefits of more fuel-efficient cars may be outweighed by higher mileages – a report from Sussex University suggests a ‘rebound effect’ in relation to fuel pricing, whereby one-fifth of economy improvements are cancelled out by motorists driving more. Don’t ask me to analyse (or even make any sense out of) the stats, but one clear conclusion appears to be that (British) motorists respond more to cuts in fuel prices than to improvements in mpg.
- On a not-unrelated note to all the above, report out today from Global NCAP calling for a worldwide minimum standard for car safety/crash protection. It makes the point that “the global vehicle fleet reached 1 billion in 2010 and is forecast to double in the next ten to fifteen years. This unprecedented increase is occurring in low and middle income countries which account for 90% of total road deaths.” Underlining why we need cleaner (as well as safer) cars, because – to repeat the point I often make – with the best will in the world, refusing to engage with these issues and assuming that everyone (including those travelling outside well-connected, affluent urban areas) can be persuaded to walk, get on a bicycle or use public transport, however ideal that may be, is pretty damn futile.
- Ecotricity is planning to get its rapid-chargers out onto the UK’s strategic A-road network, especially in areas not served by motorways. More here. (We won’t talk about the issues of maintaining functionality of these)…
- GoMore, a Scandinavian car-pooling and peer-to-peer vehicle rental platform (established 2005) has bought out Spain’s Amovens, giving it 500,000 users. Plans for further international expansion, it’s been reported.
- The European Parliament has voted to allow changes in lorry design, enabling more streamlined outlines to improve fuel efficiency as well as reforms to cab design for better visibility (and thus better safety for other road-users including pedestrians and cyclists) – but not until 2022, following lobbying from manufacturers. Comment on the matter here…
- Porsche: planning an all-electric small-ish hatchback-type model (downsized Panamera), reports Autocar.
- The government’s announced a further 140 EVs and PHEVs for its own fleet, including vehicles for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Ministry of Defence and the Home Office. These will include the Nissan Leaf, and are part of a £5million investment in EVs and supporting infrastructure for public sector fleets. More here.